As we begin September, Stock Weakness is often the case.

“Lot of talk about negative September seasonality. Goldman Sachs noted 2H September the worst two-week trading period of the year. Jefferies pointed out that going back to 1990, S&P 500 performance from the Tuesday following Labor Day Weekend until the end of the month averages -1%. JPMorgan noted that this century, September has been the worst month of the year, averaging a -1.7% return. The last five years, S&P 500 has averaged -4.2%. Wells Fargo also discussed election overhang. Over the past six presidential cycles, S&P 500 has averaged a -4.3% return during the two-month leadup to election day. Flagged real estate and tech as the two biggest underperformers, while defensives like staples, utilities and healthcare are the best. However, post-election trading has seen strong overall returns and cyclical outperformance. JPMorgan's seasonal discussion also highlighted Q4 as a bright spot, averaging +4.2% this century and +9.8% over last five years.”

Going back to 1996, September performance which as noted about the weakest month this century.  Found 14 down Septembers and 12 up Septembers.  Last four years September has been down and the last time to see five down Septembers was 1998-2002. Embedded in those years was Nasdaq bubble as well as 9-11 in 2001. This time around a down September appears less likely given that GDP for Q2 just revised higher to +3.0% from +2.8%, Fed rate cutting cycle on deck, tame inflation figures (PCE dropping to annualized last 3 months of 1.98% which is below the Fed target of 2.0%), potential power trend on S&P500. S&P500 appears to have support in the 5450-5550 area.  We shall see what unfolds as more data points arrive this week with the key nonfarm payrolls report due Friday.

Best,

Lawson Winchester Wealth Management

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